I don’t know but I’ve been told
it’s hard to run with the weight of gold
It must be nice to be a Florida fan these days. Tim Tebow gets all of the press, but what really must have the Gator faithful resting easy at night is its Charlie Strong-led defense returning basically everybody on the two-deep. In fact, with a defense that stands to dominate every opponent, Urban Meyer would be wise to focus on a more run-oriented attack, as the abounding rumors say. They simply are not going to need that many points to win each game this year.
Only Ole Miss sports a more cream puff schedule than the Gators, and although the talking heads point toward the LSU game in Baton Rouge as the big test for that team, it’s actually the only game on the schedule that they really don’t have to win. Even with an LSU loss, they’ll probably have victories over 5 teams with winning records (assuming wins over UGA, FSU, and whoever wins the West, and at least two of UT, UK, the Hogs or the Cocks will likely stitch together winning records). So as usual the pundits have it exactly wrong: LSU in Baton Rouge is actually the one game on the schedule that the Gators can afford to lose.
Tebow’s biggest asset for the Gators is not his arm or his legs, it’s his superstardom. Because of Tebow, a 12-1 SEC Champion Florida is in the BCS title unless there are somehow two undefeated teams, i.e., USC and the Big 12 Champ, which seems about impossible to me. With one loss, the human polls will put Tebow in the BCS title game even if the computers dock them for scheduling.
One thin reed upon which to hang any hope of Florida losing two games is turnover margin. Last year Florida had a staggering +22 T/O margin. Surely this will return to more normalized levels (it better, especially on Halloween), and even “average good” turnover margin of +5 or so will mean that Florida will be in more close games. A thin reed indeed with that defense, but really the stat to keep an eye on as the season unfolds.
The expectations game also works heavily against the Gators. Everybody has them penciled in for the BCS title game, and they will be at least two touchdown favorites in 11 of 12 games on the schedule and possibly the SEC Championship game as well. Just like Georgia last year, focus and discipline will be key. Unfortunately I have great confidence that Florida, unlike Georgia last season, can act like they’ve been there before, because it ain’t acting.
Absent a true mental breakdown, the only thing that can stop the Gators juggernaut is the little ol’ Bulldogs from Athens. Florida can stomach a loss in the West (and did in 06 and 08), but some team from the east has to manage to not only beat Florida, but also manage to lose only 1 other conference game all season. That would knock the Gators out of the SEC championship, and thereby the BCS title game. No other team in the East has a prayer of accomplishing both of these feats except the Dawgs. Surely Florida’s coach, Mr. Smilin-Laughin-Jokin-Around Guy, knows this. Georgia’s the only team that can keep them out of Atlanta. The hopes and dreams of the civilized, non-jean-short world rest upon those little ol’ pups from the piedmont.
On the other hand I’ve heard it said
it’s just as hard with the weight of lead
Meanwhile way up north on I-75 there’s a new sheriff in town who ostensibly has only 1 bullet in his gun, namely Eric Berry. I disagree. The Vols will be a good team this year because they have a very talented defense and simply have to be better on offense. The real problem for Kiffin & Co. is the schedule, where they’ve dropped Mississippi State in the West and pick up Ole Miss on the road. Also on the road: Florida and Alabama. But the key games for the Vols have to be a very dangerous UCLA team, along with Auburn and South Carolina. With their defensive talent, all three are winnable home games that will define Kiffin’s initial success in Knoxville, not Florida or Georgia or Alabama.
But my how things change. Recall that Saturday afternoon in October 2007, when the Vols came out and blew heavily favored Georgia away in the first half on the way to a remarkably easy victory. Fulmer had saved his job it appeared, and in the meantime had pocketed 3 wins in the past 4 years against Georgia. It appeared there might be a shift in the power structure of the East, as South Carolina, Vandy & Kentucky all found a way to lose and got Fulmer into the Dome. Fulmer then went on to lose 8 of his last 13 games.
Once the clock starts running, toe meets leather, eta al, I don’t think much can be made of Kiffin’s antics in recruiting and other offseason distractions. Yes, Kiffin has managed to make himself thoroughly unlikable by virtually all SEC fans and some in his very own base. I’d like to think he’s just playing this game to keep the focus on him and not his players. However, once he gets himself into a post-game presser after a humiliating defeat, the guy could well blow a circuit. I’m not betting on it but wouldn’t be surprised (read: here’s hoping).
I’m not sure what to make of the Vols this year other than I really doubt they will be home for the holidays again. I figure they’ll do like most teams with new head coaches: win a few they have no business winning, and lose a few they have no business losing. Enough of the former and few enough of the latter can sew up third place in the East and maybe a Peach Bowl trip if they beat Auburn & UCLA, or Shreveport if they lose both.
I certainly hope that UGA won’t be Laner’s season-defining win, but Georgia should be pretty well tapped out by week 7, having played LSU the preceding weekend and already having taken two road trips west of the Mississippi before heading to Knoxville. The Tennessee trip will very, very dangerous indeed.
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